Exchange Rate Analysis in Practice

Abstract

This paper describes the main tools used to analyze the exchange rate in the process of conducting and analyzing the macroeconomic policies of the Chilean Central Bank (CCB). In doing so, we first describe the main methodologies used to construct real exchange rate (RER) indices, and corroborate that the RER index regularly published by the CCB has the desired properties. Second, we discuss different concepts of RER equilibrium and review methodologies that can empirically approximate the concept of medium to long-term RER equilibrium. For all these methodologies, we report estimations of the equilibrium RER during 2005. In each case, we identify the main assumptions behind the results. Finally, we analyze some variables that describe the behavior of the exchange market, that are a complementary tool to the equilibrium RER estimates, and are useful to assess whether there is an unusual behavior or exceptional circumstances in this market.